Posted on November 2 , 2010 In Daily Updates

The Waiting Game

Tomorrow’s Plan:

Market is playing the waiting game here. Not much happen after the gap higher this morning. LVS followed through nicely to the upside, but it was a bit rocky. Like I said, I am not trading tomorrow or today, so I did not get in on any of that action. The market was able to close outside its range for the past few weeks, and as I write this, the after-market has continued slightly higher. This tells me that there were probably some early shorts to the “sell the news” party, and given the lack of action, are pushing the market higher to take out some stops. I would not trust a breakout higher until we get the news tomorrow. The day’s stats were bullish on decreasing volume, yet, surprise surprise, VIX trended up on the day. Tomorrow will probably be pretty tame as the fed announcement approaches.

One last thing, I listened to shadow trader this weekend about this coming number and agreed a lot with what he said. Basically, the speaker’s premise was that unless the Fed goes really big, like 500 billion, right off the bat, it is going to be a “sell the news” type event. In the past, gentle Ben has often eased into changes, so it would not be surprising if they said something like, “We are going to start with 100 billion and go from there.” Ben really has not been the flashy type. We will see.

My Best Ideas;

•I still like the same ideas from yesterday, minus CVS. So short KSS and long LVS, although LVS really needs some kind of stop run.

Best of Luck Tomorrow

Today’s Trades:

Today’s Journal Entry:

Last Note

Lucas

Posted on November 1 , 2010 In Daily Updates

Isn’t Striving Draining?

Tomorrow’s Plan:

I will be working a promotion for the next two days, so I probably will be placing no trades. Considering the heavy news coming out, I think it is a wise decision. I will miss out on scalping the Fed move, which has been profitable the last few Fed days, oh well. Usually big news items like this do not have their entire impact felt in a single afternoon. The market often takes some time to figure out what it feels about uncle Ben’s statement. Throw in the election and I think the market will be quite sporadic for the next couple days.

Trading stats for today were pretty mellow. Volume rose and the VIX made some fresh highs before pulling back. GLD did not really follow through on its bullish move from Friday, and neither did XLK; no surprise there. This morning had some better then expected news come out, and for a while there, it looked like the top of the range would be violated, but then SPY pulled back after getting within one cent of the highs. I would not be surprised if SPY pulled back another 1.5 points; ranges generally like to test their extremes. Tomorrow is probably a decent short to the bottom of the range.

My Best Ideas:

•SHORT KSS: This rallied pretty well this morning after testing the 51 level, but not piercing it. At the moment, the 51 level and the daily 50 SMA line up, which creates a very obvious line in the sand for shorts. Continue to watch this one for short set ups around that level.

•SHORT CVS: Had a nice sell off this afternoon for 30 cents or so. This is a slow mover but it has a nice trend on the hourly.

•LONG LVS: A pretty obvious long, it might need to pull back a bit more then it did today to reload the long side. It still looks good.

Best of Luck Tomorrow

Today’s Trades:

Today’s Journal Entry:

Last Note

Some notes from today:

•Striving is incredibly draining. Most people’s existence is constantly taken up by striving for some future “good.” Whether that is trading success, a stable business, 76 virgins, or a loving relationship. So much energy is spent on trying to get those things, and for most of us, it is our natural state of life to be unsatisfied with what we have at this moment. Even being around others who have a strong sense of striving within them is draining. The people who drain you, take your energy, and are negative influences are those who say “fight, try harder, your not doing enough, you need to understand better,” and other similar statements. Guilt is a great motivator to get something no body values or really wants.

•The people who uplift you, give you energy, and are positive influences accept you first and foremost as you are in this moment. Many people think accepting this moment (yourself) means accepting poor performance. That could not be further from the truth. Perfection does not exist in the external world, only the internal. Making yourself internally upset does not change the world from imperfect to perfect. The reason you feel like you are banging your head against the wall is because your trying to make reality into something that it is not. True success is being content and carefree with “good enough,” with the knowledge that this does not exclude you from continuing to learn and grow.

Lucas

Posted on October 31 , 2010 In Daily Updates

Things Change

Tomorrow’s Plan:

The market has been in pause mode as it waits for the news coming out this week. On Wednesday, there will be the QE2 Fed announcement, and on Tuesday, the election. The VIX has been rising as the news event gets closer, indicating volatility expanding in front of the numbers. I do not think there will be that great of trading opportunities in front of these numbers. There will probably be some good stop runs, but not much you can really sink your teeth into. So I will be looking for quick momentum moves, reversion to the mean trades, and reversals; not so much trending moves. Looking across multiple sectors, most of them are in ranges as well (XLF!). Tech and gold look like they might have found a bid on Friday, maybe that will continue? I don’t know, but don’t count on it until the news comes out.

My Best Ideas:

•SHORT KSS: I like this chart, but the stock is sitting right on its 50 SMA from the daily. If it starts looking “selly” on Monday, I am all over it as a short. It might test 51 again, but it needs to get below that to really run.

•LONG AA: Low priced stock here, but with some size that can be made up for. Had a great run on Friday, so probably have some MATD action in the morning. Might be a better long after a day or two.

•LONG SLW: This looks like an awesome long, lots of excitement and volume. Will probably have some MATD action tomorrow. Any swing lows on the hourly should be aggressive bids.

Best of Luck Tomorrow

Today’s Trades:

Today’s Journal Entry:

Last Note

Things always change, they grow, they blossom, they die, and are reborn in some other form. I learned a lot this last week, maybe not the best way to put it, but it was an enlightening experience. I do not know how things will change, but they will. I think a lot of the things I used to do that I thought I had to do, will be dropped. A good example today was when I looked at my blog reader. I had many posts that I had not read and there was this nagging inside that urged me to go through the posts. I stopped, what made me feel I had to go through all these posts? Which ones did I actually want to read? So I read those only! Was very nice. When you see death, you start to drop those non-essentials that somewhere along the way you thought you needed.

I was amazed this last week at the opportunity I have here. I have the chance to make a living doing something that is like a computer game to me! I love computer games, I play them whenever I get a chance. Here I am with an opportunity to do it for a living. Yet for the most part, I have made the entire trading experience into a miserable hell for myself. I have reached a point where I absolutely hate Sunday nights: getting ready for the next week, writing up the plan, reading up on all the blog posts and getting prepared. Just hate it, can’t stand it, do not want anything to do with it. How did I get to this point? The misery continues Monday morning; waking up, listening to the mentor room, placing losing trades because I think I have to.

Death really shows you that there are no end of life parades. No one comes along and says “Well you suffered and struggled through life so well, now here is your reward.” Nope, it is just over and whatever life you lived is what you got. So why make it miserable? A friend of mine, who I play a video game with, said “I basically hate my life, but I play this game to give myself an escape.” This really stuck with me. I really feel compassion when I hear this. I have made myself very miserable in the past because I believed it was the “right” thing to do: “I have to be miserable to get what I want.” Doesn’t work though, does it? If it does, the misery doesn’t go away with getting what you want. It is a lose/lose situation. Oh well, I ramble, I will write something up tomorrow.

Lucas

Posted on October 24 , 2010 In Daily Updates

Death

Due to a death in the family, there may be a delay in reports. I will begin trading again Tuesday

Edit: Due to planning the funeral and all that jazz, I will probably take the rest of the week off. The family member was my grandma, who I was not particularly close with. I do not feel upset or off balance, but the rest of my family is in a different state, so its good to take some time off.

  • Subscribe to this RSS feed
  • Receive updates as soon as they are posted.

Archives